MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd086f02c0fa0c8bc7e81f5468cafc9b5408492adb3d60cdfb8a9a57da61e8774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 626.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 577.74$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 556.25$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 206.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 127.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 116.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 94.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 87.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 85.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 71.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 66.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 61.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 58.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 51.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 43.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 39.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 32.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 28.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.