NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0968d62136f4878075e56e3238be9311651da9859a5fe32c6969fb8fc08cb96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd84e…4ebdbacked Over | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Under | 52c | 387$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…55eabacked Over | 78c | 340$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 335.72$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 18c | 263.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 60c | 218.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…3bccbacked Under | 7c | 207$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 166.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 20c | 156.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…cdc7backed Under | 20c | 150.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…ac07backed Over | 80c | 146.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 132.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 50c | 130.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 124$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 96.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1df9backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed Under | 79c | 63.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…7224backed Over | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 39c | 53.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b15…7af7backed Over | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 60c | 26.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Panthers won
- Wild vs. PanthersWild won
- Wild vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wild vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Wild vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.