TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ENCE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZ NXTof MOUZ NXT, ENCE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked ENCE64c15,000$9,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,592.1975452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4299…10ccbacked MOUZ NXT36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9201844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ NXT43c2,672$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.83,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ NXT35c1,716$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.691,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1047…9036backed MOUZ NXT36c1,620$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed MOUZ NXT36c1,382$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.481,01753.4%543 W · 474 L+65.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed ENCE52c1,349$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.4843055.1%237 W · 193 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked ENCE61c1,336$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.1335347.9%169 W · 184 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8045…9116backed MOUZ NXT51c1,188$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.573852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked MOUZ NXT36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64094445.7%431 W · 513 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed MOUZ NXT36c820$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.822044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ENCE60c766.69$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.652,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed MOUZ NXT36c724.67$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.7910747.7%51 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed MOUZ NXT36c604.22$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.740439.6%160 W · 244 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked MOUZ NXT36c579$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2113836.2%50 W · 88 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ NXT41c563.56$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.555,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked MOUZ NXT37c560$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.816749.1%82 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked ENCE64c547.8$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5917954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked MOUZ NXT36c535.12$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.486238.7%24 W · 38 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed MOUZ NXT37c491.35$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4854339.4%214 W · 329 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ENCE59c472.75$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.815,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed MOUZ NXT44c455.69$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3667645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked MOUZ NXT44c441$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.12,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed MOUZ NXT36c402.22$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.4221445.8%98 W · 116 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed MOUZ NXT46c394.82$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.819353.9%104 W · 89 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked MOUZ NXT36c383.92$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7148548.7%236 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked ENCE40c380$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15225744.4%114 W · 143 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed MOUZ NXT38c352.15$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.445860.3%35 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ENCE43c333$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.193,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed MOUZ NXT36c320.5$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1232345.2%146 W · 177 L+12.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed MOUZ NXT41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1778144.4%36 W · 45 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ENCE61c290.36$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.661,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed ENCE59c232.5$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.210647.2%50 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked MOUZ NXT36c225.83$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.539443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed ENCE48c224.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.011,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6a…7dccbacked MOUZ NXT57c218.88$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.886550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ NXT34c214.09$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.66,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed MOUZ NXT50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10030949.2%152 W · 157 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked MOUZ NXT36c194.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.293831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked ENCE75c188.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3416963.3%107 W · 62 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde57…666fbacked MOUZ NXT36c182.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.065133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed MOUZ NXT37c180.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.893938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked ENCE67c165.65$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.991,03857.4%596 W · 442 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed MOUZ NXT38c154.42$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.022441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ NXT38c153.92$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.712,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed ENCE62c150.17$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1180542.2%340 W · 465 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed ENCE35c143.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9313258.3%77 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked MOUZ NXT36c142.2$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.016858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ENCE60c137.53$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5245854.8%251 W · 207 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed ENCE59c134.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.641,08354.2%587 W · 496 L+39.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked MOUZ NXT36c130.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.461936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed MOUZ NXT37c128.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3220756%116 W · 91 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed ENCE62c118.46$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7425635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed MOUZ NXT56c115.92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.62,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked MOUZ NXT36c105.39$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.921,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24cc…0927backed MOUZ NXT50c104$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.412355.3%68 W · 55 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked ENCE59c101.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.618939.2%74 W · 115 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ENCE28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8226…b9d1backed MOUZ NXT36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed MOUZ NXT35c99.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9961047.7%291 W · 319 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked MOUZ NXT35c99.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.162,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed ENCE43c99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5714949.7%74 W · 75 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked MOUZ NXT48c97.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.993,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5a…9ef7backed MOUZ NXT36c96.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.86839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked ENCE36c95.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.691,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked MOUZ NXT37c90$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8591245.8%418 W · 494 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ NXT47c88.01$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.845,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed ENCE64c87.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0383556.2%469 W · 366 L+31.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed ENCE43c84.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3387330.9%270 W · 603 L-62.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0607…b344backed ENCE63c83.33$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.423577.1%27 W · 8 L+8.4wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+59.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5181…504bbacked ENCE65c76.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.653953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0591…829dbacked MOUZ NXT36c76.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ENCE52c68.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.672,08447%979 W · 1,105 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed ENCE60c65.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0915746.5%73 W · 84 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ENCE48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.345,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeaeb…c2d0backed MOUZ NXT36c60.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked MOUZ NXT39c57.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.073,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed MOUZ NXT34c53.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked MOUZ NXT34c53.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,31851.7%682 W · 636 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ENCE66c53.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3546354%250 W · 213 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed MOUZ NXT37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.516738.9%65 W · 102 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed MOUZ NXT35c46.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.991,82847.6%871 W · 957 L-54.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed ENCE65c45.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.874065%26 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked ENCE60c45.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.571,03454.9%568 W · 466 L-2.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked ENCE65c45.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4820757.5%119 W · 88 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed MOUZ NXT39c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5529246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ NXT48c44.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.134,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8818…f8acbacked ENCE65c44.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916660.8%101 W · 65 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed MOUZ NXT50c43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a63…1c02backed MOUZ NXT36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af6…ffdbbacked MOUZ NXT36c41.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.311145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed ENCE80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb54c…7f56backed ENCE65c38.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.826155.7%34 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5df…50d7backed MOUZ NXT41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.59922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked MOUZ NXT37c34.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.815658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ENCE51c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked MOUZ NXT38c31.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.32437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed MOUZ NXT51c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2143448.4%210 W · 224 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked ENCE50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.925252%131 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed ENCE63c27.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5111348.7%55 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.