Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0fe600424590b5bf43c33c2ce330ed89803ebe4b66b429e932e2040860d11fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 612.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 384.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 382.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 60c | 348.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 277.31$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 263$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 61c | 198.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 197$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 189$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 185.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 69c | 184.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 154.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 149.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 142.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 124.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 50c | 113.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 110.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 42c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 107.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 66c | 104$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 92.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 86.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 82.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 77.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 61.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 58.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 57.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 57.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 35c | 56.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…1b2bbacked No | 36c | 55.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 53.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 67c | 47.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 34c | 47.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 47.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 41.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 40.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 40.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 46c | 38.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 68c | 35.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 36c | 32.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 52c | 30.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 45c | 30.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 54c | 29.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 49c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 20.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 66c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 75c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.