Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2333f8b141141992b98e8c312e2e0af0a1a76b01c0957beb44ddb38007f531b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 303.85$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 251.55$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 26c | 245.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 65c | 201.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 24c | 174$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 71c | 169.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 157.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 154.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 64c | 150.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 138.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 130.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 130.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 25c | 129.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 127.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 127.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 63c | 107.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 104.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 100.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 90.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 80.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 77.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 77.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 77.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 32c | 77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 28c | 76.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 79c | 68.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 67.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 21c | 66.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 65.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 79c | 64.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 61.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 50.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 48.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 46.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 69c | 40.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 28c | 39.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 39c | 38.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 36.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 34.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 28.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 28.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 70c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 25.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 60c | 25.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…79bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 44c | 23.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 17.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 13.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.