CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd127bf0e21d7af7a96c212c9db635a5afe59ec83810865e6b16d78b33ea8e780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Just Playersof ARCRED, Just Players
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed Just Players | 51c | 675.45$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.78 | 402 | 64.7%260 W · 142 L | +49.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Just Players | 72c | 624.22$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.59 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Just Players | 42c | 453.71$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.85 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Just Players | 56c | 388.38$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked ARCRED | 48c | 334.68$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED | 50c | 324.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.46 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked ARCRED | 71c | 318.05$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.73 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 58c | 307.59$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.72 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ARCRED | 50c | 288.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…319bbacked ARCRED | 27c | 282$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed ARCRED | 46c | 279.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…bd8ebacked Just Players | 47c | 266.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -15.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f1…7933backed Just Players | 47c | 229.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Just Players | 46c | 209$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ARCRED | 50c | 189.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ARCRED | 53c | 178.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Just Players | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ARCRED | 46c | 147.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Just Players | 53c | 146.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Just Players | 52c | 112.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Just Players | 44c | 98.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…4465backed Just Players | 57c | 98.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Just Players | 52c | 95.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked ARCRED | 53c | 94.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed ARCRED | 55c | 87.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Just Players | 37c | 86.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Just Players | 45c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Just Players | 60c | 68.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Just Players | 55c | 63.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…384fbacked ARCRED | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…af95backed Just Players | 27c | 52.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed ARCRED | 53c | 49.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Just Players | 54c | 47.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Just Players | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed ARCRED | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Just Players | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Just Players | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked Just Players | 46c | 37.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Just Players | 58c | 32.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Just Players | 57c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked ARCRED | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 412 | 50.2%207 W · 205 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Just Players | 47c | 27.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Just Players | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 98 | 64.3%63 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked ARCRED | 69c | 23.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Just Players | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a78bbacked Just Players | 52c | 19.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 PlayoffsJust Players won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players - Map 1 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.