Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd16134eda4c6343d5cbff7d80e3b2a523bf654303e450597177c9426ebbb1583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 39c | 479.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 357 | 26.6%95 W · 262 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 58c | 462.99$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.53 | 567 | 36.7%208 W · 359 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 373.52$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 285.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…c15bbacked No | 79c | 230.5$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 34c | 211.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 64c | 203.28$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 164.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 151.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 77c | 149.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 143.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 143.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 47c | 139.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 127.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 62c | 117.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 112$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 46c | 108.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 56c | 106.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 596 | 21.6%129 W · 467 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 208 | 31.3%65 W · 143 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 72.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 60.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 53.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 64c | 46.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 70c | 46.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 23c | 44.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 35c | 43.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 42.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 41.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 64c | 33.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 64c | 29.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 26.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3f8ebacked Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 57c | 25.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 240 | 60.4%145 W · 95 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 58c | 24.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 177 | 26.6%47 W · 130 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 14?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 14?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.