TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roehampton 2: Mark Ceban vs Michele Ribecai

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michele Ribecaiof Mark Ceban, Michele Ribecai
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,316
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,316 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Mark Ceban20c1,462$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.138,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…caf0backed Michele Ribecai78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.0510470.2%73 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Mark Ceban39c1,181$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.164,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Michele Ribecai63c952.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3838557.1%220 W · 165 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mark Ceban37c833.1$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.432,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Michele Ribecai64c752.78$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.068,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Michele Ribecai60c340$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13624344%107 W · 136 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mark Ceban34c196.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.948,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Mark Ceban31c187.19$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.21,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Mark Ceban18c181.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07aa…63bfbacked Michele Ribecai60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.678261%50 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mark Ceban39c151.89$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.362,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2947…e04fbacked Michele Ribecai60c124.17$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.67875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Michele Ribecai59c113.28$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4522152.9%117 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b6…886ebacked Michele Ribecai65c112.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4717660.2%106 W · 70 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Mark Ceban40c112$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Mark Ceban41c110.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1630644.1%135 W · 171 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Michele Ribecai76c104$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3770254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Mark Ceban11c100.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.783,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Mark Ceban40c97.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Michele Ribecai61c96.32$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.551,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Michele Ribecai61c82.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0969047%324 W · 366 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Michele Ribecai63c64.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.053,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Michele Ribecai72c57.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4523954.8%131 W · 108 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Mark Ceban40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Michele Ribecai59c49.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4921056.2%118 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Michele Ribecai73c44.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Michele Ribecai65c43.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.22,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Mark Ceban41c37.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5797141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Mark Ceban40c37.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.811,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Mark Ceban40c36.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4455347.6%263 W · 290 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…1e9fbacked Mark Ceban41c33.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.613438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Michele Ribecai59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5312657.1%72 W · 54 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Michele Ribecai68c23.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.531,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa05f…2465backed Michele Ribecai59c23.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.638067.5%54 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Michele Ribecai59c20.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3430268.9%208 W · 94 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Michele Ribecai70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.046,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x147c…2540backed Michele Ribecai61c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0228164.4%181 W · 100 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ad…5097backed Michele Ribecai69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.626868.3%183 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9047…7663backed Michele Ribecai67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.