South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd179584796ab5f40d36abacc9b3bc80035f9d890f39ddd05e89507423afd3f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 71c | 8,595$6,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,102.45 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 6,801$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,632.44 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 4,889$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.7 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 67c | 4,678$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.22 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 43c | 3,352$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.33 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 68c | 2,013$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.27 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 29c | 1,110$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.34 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,071$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 64c | 640.71$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.11 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…37e0backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 403.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.26 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 72c | 399.98$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked No | 5c | 264.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 73c | 215$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 65c | 172.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed No | 73c | 167.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…89a7backed Yes | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…88bdbacked Yes | 27c | 166.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 49c | 156.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 47c | 150.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 63c | 127$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 11c | 125.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 125.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 73c | 124.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 37c | 111.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…93cbbacked Yes | 46c | 108.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 65c | 107.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 103.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Yes | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 37c | 85.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 32c | 78.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…ae42backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 60.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 31c | 57.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 35c | 52.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Yes | 27c | 50.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked No | 28c | 49.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked No | 28c | 49.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 23c | 48.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 65c | 45.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed Yes | 32c | 40.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 46c | 35.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 68c | 28.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 41c | 26.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…c741backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 24.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 60c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…df45backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…21dbbacked No | 71c | 19.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed No | 65c | 18.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.