South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x995d40cef537b57953c78a0ad7660d5ce1f883c065d0b9bc7e5e4a137f4cc580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 21c | 8,332$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.79 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 3,145$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.07 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 22c | 2,633$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.22 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,085$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.96 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…a3aabacked No | 78c | 1,928$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.07 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 21c | 1,839$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.82 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 1,700$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.03 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…e4d2backed No | 78c | 1,698$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 11c | 1,389$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.43 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…8fd0backed Yes | 20c | 985.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 21c | 960.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 897.9$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.87 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 13c | 769$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes | 20c | 746.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 78c | 697$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 40c | 605.15$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 578.33$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…9666backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…7e93backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 493.91$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 75c | 477.22$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 471.94$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 434.94$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 22c | 326.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…1940backed No | 79c | 317.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 11c | 277.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Yes | 20c | 270$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Yes | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 8c | 178.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 18c | 163.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 154.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 44c | 142$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…4debbacked No | 69c | 129.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 16c | 126.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Yes | 23c | 125.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 79c | 124$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Yes | 18c | 123.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 122$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 32c | 121.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 80c | 105.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 66c | 97.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 17c | 89.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 80c | 85.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…4303backed Yes | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 71c | 72.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 63.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 18c | 62.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 76c | 61.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b1…94acbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…02ffbacked No | 77c | 42.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 36c | 42.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked No | 78c | 37.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 64c | 32.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 78c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…0e72backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.