Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-2.5) vs Team Yandex (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd17edf494a9872cf480c8c01979c59777563a760ab530f6dc8be8a19a96755fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Tundra Esports, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27bc…6275backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 705.8$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Team Yandex | 65c | 402.77$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Team Yandex | 71c | 402.77$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed Team Yandex | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Tundra Esports | 28c | 84.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Tundra Esports | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…bddfbacked Team Yandex | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…1fbfbacked Team Yandex | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…f164backed Team Yandex | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-2.5) vs Team Yandex (+2.5)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 3 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 4 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)Tundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 53.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 59.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 62.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 71.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.