Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd18a1b7973f65a242b6b26068cfa94e885fa7a6aa1ac5a2e4a3d4a506abad7b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,503$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 2c | 2,965$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,649$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 1c | 1,793$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 1,326$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…498bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,212$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,131$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…5e9abacked Yes | 1c | 1,073$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,023$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…1e26backed Yes | 9c | 920.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 698.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 565.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 17c | 480.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked Yes | 13c | 414.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 392.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 325.44$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 38c | 322.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.69 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 30c | 300.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 285.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 271.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 10c | 269$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 209.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 205.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 38c | 203.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 7c | 196.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 21c | 182.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 7c | 179.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 175.74$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 77c | 166.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 17c | 148.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 16c | 147.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 26c | 131.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 12c | 118.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 23c | 116.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 112.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 11c | 111.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 108.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 107.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…8f0bbacked Yes | 21c | 106.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 20c | 97.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 83.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 73c | 79.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 21c | 72.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 80c | 69.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 40c | 64.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 64.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 56c | 63.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 75c | 61.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 19c | 58.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…8334backed Yes | 19c | 54.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 20c | 50.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 34c | 31.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2b9abacked No | 80c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 62c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 54c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.