Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ae8fe9c6d9dba8a2f372b833f5913b65dd9eb889c35c042a89de21ae9a15cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 0c | 9,849$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…498bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,066$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 511.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 479.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 31c | 469.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 376.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 371.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 364.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 8c | 346.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 22c | 337.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 78c | 335.62$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…1e26backed No | 76c | 306.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 10c | 298.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 12c | 267.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked No | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 185.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 168.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 159.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 158.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 154.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 21c | 153.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…1466backed Yes | 27c | 140.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 120.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 18c | 113.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 14c | 99.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…8454backed Yes | 26c | 96.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 26c | 96.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 91.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 75.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 75c | 67.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 20c | 56.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 29c | 51.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 75c | 40.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed No | 78c | 33.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.