Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e631305f2e5756130a67da51306ed48c142104c4cb6b5aa92c3daa56ec2c473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2175…1e26backed Yes | 57c | 2,500$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,307$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.19 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 3c | 1,299$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 1,131$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 742$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 33c | 711.24$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.89 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 57c | 690.81$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.89 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 654.21$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.67 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 455.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.07 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 9c | 419.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.92 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 40c | 407.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.96 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 366.9$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 328.48$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 321.59$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 16c | 299.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.56 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 292.21$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.17 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 256.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.04 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…f925backed No | 67c | 249.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 14c | 219.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 205.3$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 202$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 181.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 15c | 174.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.31 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 169.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 168.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 9c | 160.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 35c | 158.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…8454backed Yes | 49c | 153.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 61c | 147.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 45c | 141.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 140.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 139.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 22c | 138.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 55c | 129.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 128.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 128.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 126.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…0d07backed Yes | 43c | 117.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 114.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 104.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 101.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 94.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 15c | 92.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 37c | 89.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 89.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 87.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 21c | 85.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…9a80backed No | 79c | 84.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 76.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…6dbbbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 31c | 73.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 48c | 72.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 69.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b07…f0ffbacked Yes | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 29c | 60.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 55.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 32c | 55.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 49c | 54.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 52.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 50.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 50.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 48c | 49.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 50c | 48.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 45.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 44.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 43.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 25c | 42.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 69c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 40.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 73c | 39.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 58c | 37.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 35.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 47c | 34.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 32.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 52c | 32.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.