Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e3f168e62c43f6fdc160325cf255e96169edcfa8db339d240c7e98bc23f5c4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 905.21$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 836.94$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 782.29$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 28c | 747.03$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.84 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 672.87$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 45c | 645.01$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.55 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…1e26backed Yes | 34c | 611.19$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 560.86$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 52c | 546.86$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.42 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 418$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…f925backed Yes | 39c | 407.05$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 42c | 377.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 46c | 376.37$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.18 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 366.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 311.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 54c | 286.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 36c | 280.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 274.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 77c | 260.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 58c | 253.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 216.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 20c | 208.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes | 48c | 206.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 52c | 197.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 197.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 185.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 183.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 66c | 182.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 72c | 178$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 60c | 169.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 52c | 169.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 64c | 167$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 32c | 164.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 150.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 68c | 142.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 14c | 136.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…149cbacked No | 78c | 128.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 41c | 124.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 122.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 120.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…8454backed Yes | 62c | 120.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 48c | 113.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 67c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…1466backed Yes | 61c | 98.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 96.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 91.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 90.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 50c | 87.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 86.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 60c | 84.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 84.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 79.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 53c | 78.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 68c | 76.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 57c | 74.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes | 60c | 65.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 63.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 78c | 63.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 62.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 73c | 61.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 61.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…cf9abacked No | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…498bbacked Yes | 60c | 57.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 56.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 33c | 54.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 56c | 53.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 46c | 53.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…df2dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…6dbbbacked No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 68c | 49.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 49.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 42c | 47.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 27c | 47.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.