Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1ab87b97a94a5dda0c14c3be2a98139811a7e6447ec71e3e257d0967a0959ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 1,312$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 851.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 657.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 8c | 637.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 72c | 540.67$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 32c | 486.35$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 5c | 484.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 9c | 346.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 61c | 300$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 245.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 243.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 19c | 227.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 226.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 38c | 190$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 179.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 154.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 34c | 146.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 141.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 76c | 115.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 110.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 12c | 105.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 40c | 100.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 44c | 99.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 59c | 74.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 71.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 48c | 60.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 56.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 53.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…2624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 61c | 44.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 31c | 42.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 40c | 41.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…3fdbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 38.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 31.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 26.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa618…c869backed Yes | 39c | 25.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…f17abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…081abacked No | 62c | 24.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 58c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 68c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.