Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1914c701f6a96578e597f0d2a51e2ab8e7b08f5c57159b186c56051e9fa692af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 3c | 20,708$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.54 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 9,426$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 4,645$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 2,330$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.05 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 3c | 1,957$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 72c | 1,573$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.6 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 1,544$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…8c07backed Yes | 22c | 918.39$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 808.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 66c | 731.75$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.12 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 34c | 614.71$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.16 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 595.2$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 579.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 4c | 522.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 501.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.24 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 499.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 473.21$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 35c | 446.11$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 6c | 419.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.67 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 76c | 418.57$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 67c | 400$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 15c | 377.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 67c | 337.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 66c | 313.66$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 14c | 304.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 8c | 290.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.07 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 286.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 7c | 245.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 5c | 236.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 13c | 232$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 15c | 205.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…6215backed Yes | 11c | 181.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 58c | 170.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 139.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 138.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 80c | 115.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 10c | 108.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 105.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 74c | 103.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 102.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 71c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 94.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 75c | 81.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 45c | 78.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 67.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 49c | 66.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…6bb5backed No | 34c | 62.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…cf9abacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 74c | 55.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 77c | 54.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 54.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 72c | 53.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 24c | 53.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 40c | 49.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…e4babacked No | 46c | 45.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 48c | 44.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 70c | 40.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 39.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 38.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 35.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 77c | 32.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 31.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 22.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 55c | 21.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 69c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.