NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b57f113364fff212bbaa7c355b15d1c065d91a81753f115e6a3811c8acdd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 5,012$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.12 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,328$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 55c | 3,651$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.1 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 51c | 3,023$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.85 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,843$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.16 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 51c | 1,563$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.13 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 52c | 1,396$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.17 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.05 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 55c | 1,065$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.45 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…eda3backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 47c | 412.77$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 49c | 253.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 224.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 168.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Under | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Under | 51c | 116.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 57c | 70.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…0938backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 42.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 52c | 34.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 33.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…9585backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Hornets vs. PistonsPistons won
- Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.