TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x869b…c625backed Over50c20,994$10,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,497.124961.2%30 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Over53c16,961$8,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,917.8611656.9%66 W · 50 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under47c15,000$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd16e…9b10backed Under50c10,007$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,003.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f57…4612backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x641d…ba0abacked Under51c9,812$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,807.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over50c7,006$3,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5032,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over49c6,371$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.92,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…3618backed Under50c4,800$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c4,634$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.869,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c8…6c62backed Under51c4,098$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under50c3,618$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.1236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6881…525dbacked Over57c2,202$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Under48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3317151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027443.1%118 W · 156 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over52c1,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7752,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under47c704$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.127252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over3c658$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.742,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under41c657$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.4418235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Under48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3258247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3181,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under50c406$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20325452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c399$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.228,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Over55c350$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.57358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under47c221$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5850047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over62c219$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7820034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3336649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3315649.4%77 W · 79 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd29b…b518backed Over56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10218656.5%105 W · 81 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3910…a66dbacked Under50c199.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-66.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under44c178$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.681,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed Over53c151.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511351.3%58 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Over56c142.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8016852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…4083backed Over51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017341%71 W · 102 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Under48c59.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3111445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under48c57.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.821,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under47c52.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9852643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x196a…f34fbacked Over51c50.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Under44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2818549.2%91 W · 94 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Over53c48.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9413945.3%63 W · 76 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c48.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.934,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd1…2739backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under47c30.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2420456.4%115 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa973…f639backed Over51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under44c28.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1838148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1393849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06b9…351fbacked Over55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.