Serie A · resolved market

SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b784c5d77d7761517c0abe30bff0237edba73261e1d0be6cedc9ce83d5b1fb

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,896 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Under	42c	4,138$1,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,410.19	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	37c	2,803$1,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,758.73	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dd…171dbacked Over	73c	2,500$1,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,824.72	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	75cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5440…edd4backed Over	64c	2,050$1,308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,307.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Over	45c	2,000$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.8	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	40cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	27c	1,500$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,094.99	366	30.9%113 W · 253 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Over	46c	800$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	73c	684.93$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	74	64.9%48 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under	27c	610.55$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.59	98	26.5%26 W · 72 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	72c	560$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.73	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	66c	455.27$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	154	59.7%92 W · 62 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Under	25c	425.35$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.6	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	27c	379.99$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.39	314	41.4%130 W · 184 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	58c	356.31$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.66	168	42.9%72 W · 96 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	60c	345.63$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.49	932	52%485 W · 447 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	28c	334.25$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.66	289	31.8%92 W · 197 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	26c	303.47$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.57	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	44c	300.35$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.86	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	154	50%77 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	43c	290.28$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.58	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over	72c	277.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	78c	256.41$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	193	53.9%104 W · 89 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	73c	209.17$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.51	985	44.9%442 W · 543 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Over	74c	192.27$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.28	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	40c	185.85$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	387	39.8%154 W · 233 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	28c	171.36$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.39	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	60c	165.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	52%39 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	47c	153.51$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.15	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over	16c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	87	48.3%42 W · 45 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	72c	141.98$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.23	372	50.5%188 W · 184 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed Over	70c	127.49$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Under	54c	125.93$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.93	115	47.8%55 W · 60 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a6…d7bebacked Over	57c	121.25$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6a44backed Under	79c	120$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.31	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064a…245dbacked Under	67c	101.95$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.64	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	150	42%63 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3915…b03ebacked Over	56c	94.72$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.78	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	58c	93.3$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.11	346	43.4%150 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…27fbbacked Over	74c	90.93$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.29	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	68cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	42c	87.89$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.17	368	52.7%194 W · 174 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Over	27c	83.72$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	70c	71.2$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9de5…e8f5backed Over	72c	69.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	73cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	80c	62.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over	28c	53.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+4.0wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Under	77c	50.28$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.56	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-5.8wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	27c	47$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.31	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-4.0wins	-0.31per pick	38cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x15a7…9725backed Over	73c	40$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	69cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7876…c421backed Under	42c	35.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.71	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x216b…8528backed Over	48c	33.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9a…989abacked Over	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-3.9wins	-0.33per pick	41cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x25bb…b369backed Over	73c	28.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…bc38backed Over	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbdc…cdadbacked Over	64c	26$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3a…58b0backed Over	74c	25.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over	43c	24.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	72c	22.92$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	69	72.5%50 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e5…260cbacked Over	49c	22.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Over	74c	20.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	127	44.1%56 W · 71 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0c8…c5d9backed Over	74c	20.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bdf…f939backed Over	73c	15.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	69cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Over	73c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event