Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60f208a3397c8cea54ad33d15062d1eea93a331c32bca2a5fb25d8e2952fa5e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 49c | 1,658$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,033$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.61 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 55c | 789.21$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.14 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 52c | 780.2$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 33c | 764.29$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.07 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 63c | 753.14$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…6c23backed Over | 35c | 650$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 636.6$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.13 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 42c | 628.51$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 567.46$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.86 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 446.95$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.21 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 374.18$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 48c | 372.92$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 49c | 303.7$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 235.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…5079backed Over | 70c | 195.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 36c | 191.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 46c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 122.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 46c | 119.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Under | 51c | 111.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…4313backed Under | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 109.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 48c | 107.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…c3a6backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…fe20backed Under | 38c | 82.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 49c | 68.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 61.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 43c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over | 60c | 41.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 67c | 27.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…adb6backed Under | 52c | 25.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…0d78backed Over | 48c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73a…ec04backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 71c | 18.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.