Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1d4d11514219123ef82671b24c65a92e72da690387e120fbdecf9069ec630a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 1,138$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 696.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 688.92$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 8c | 618$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 580.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 60c | 539.1$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.32 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 504.42$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 408.65$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 34c | 291.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 287$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 66c | 273.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 253.4$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 27c | 242$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 241.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 187.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 27c | 171.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 160.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 25c | 159.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 10c | 151.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Yes | 11c | 139.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…8c77backed Yes | 25c | 99.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 93.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 44c | 81.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 78.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 72.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 33c | 71.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 70.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 66.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 62.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 34c | 59.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 57.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 53.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 57c | 44.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 34c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 42.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 64c | 42.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 40.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 28c | 38.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 37.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 78c | 35.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 35.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 38c | 34.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 32.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 69c | 31.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 30.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked No | 71c | 29.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 61c | 27.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 26.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 67c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.