Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x549a6968f78987694ec5f786d7f1064bcb605d7b97c123a56ba5bdb614a1fb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 79c | 1,528$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.16 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 13c | 1,328$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 1,262$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.51 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 681.65$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 32c | 633.6$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 600$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.63 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…523fbacked No | 56c | 478.77$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 422.04$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 415.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 370.14$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 353.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 337.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 61c | 324.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 310.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 5c | 303.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 302.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.84 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 282.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 10c | 254.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 253.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 250.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 49c | 236.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 5c | 228.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 7c | 210.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 56c | 180.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 156$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 149.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 36c | 143.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 9c | 138.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 49c | 133.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 55c | 133.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…8c77backed Yes | 75c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 125.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 117.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 42c | 117.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 110.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 110.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 10c | 103.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 43c | 103.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 101.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 100.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 36c | 84.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed No | 61c | 81.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 56c | 80.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 77.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 27c | 76.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 75.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 70.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 70.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 52c | 70.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 70.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 68.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 39c | 68.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 67.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 37c | 62.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 60.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 36c | 55.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 48c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 39c | 48.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 46.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 36c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 39c | 40.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 40.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 33c | 40.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 40.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 39c | 37.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 36.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 35c | 36.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 63c | 35.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…4447backed No | 57c | 35.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 34.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 33.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 52c | 31.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 50c | 30.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 59c | 29.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 52c | 28.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 48c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.