TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,498 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under54c3,295$1,776 inLost-$1,776.311,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over47c1,496$696 inWon+$800.0145748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over45c762.33$346 inWon+$416.685,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over46c751.26$346 inWon+$405.6877647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over46c97.88$45 inWon+$52.864,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over46c93.29$43 inWon+$50.412,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over55c66.69$37 inWon+$30.011,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over47c60.71$28 inWon+$32.4358352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d4…6b58backed Under52c57.69$30 inLost-$303360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Over48c57.69$28 inWon+$309636.5%35 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over47c32.63$15 inWon+$17.2923758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3546…1a58backed Under45c22.23$10 inLost-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe369…9148backed Under45c22.23$10 inLost-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f53…12cabacked Under45c22.23$10 inLost-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.