TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 2 above $210?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,314 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x969f…4d55backed Yes71c2,989$2,124 inWon+$864.881,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf78…77b0backed Yes13c2,150$280 inWon+$1,870.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick12cpaid+489.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x770b…e274backed Yes79c1,000$791 inWon+$208.5717038.2%65 W · 105 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No2c1,000$22 inLost-$22.28943.8%39 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No5c968.1$46 inLost-$45.6348234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No12c865.99$100 inLost-$99.84168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No38c652$248 inLost-$248.413619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No72c500$360 inLost-$3606864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No13c492.16$63 inLost-$62.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c4…d7ecbacked No30c487.48$144 inLost-$144.4434839.1%136 W · 212 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes78c303.51$237 inWon+$66.3781240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c200$12 inLost-$12.1924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1596…3c02backed Yes13c180$23 inWon+$156.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes75c161.84$122 inWon+$40.1231036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked Yes72c117.34$85 inWon+$32.394465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No28c114.7$32 inLost-$31.998239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No59c110.79$66 inLost-$65.5199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No36c90$32 inLost-$32.257844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e3…b3d7backed No64c62.12$40 inLost-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No44c56.77$25 inLost-$24.888536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c49$12 inLost-$12.21,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c31$11 inWon+$19.8415835.4%56 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes73c29.31$21 inWon+$7.9613751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c26.09$11 inWon+$15.2286338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes69c19.32$13 inWon+$5.941566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.