Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd259fd5af26c5f7a97c2b4348bbae7de3f9110d9a9fece43c227574069c14e43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 7c | 797.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 549.88$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 24c | 326.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…0f8fbacked Over | 76c | 236.84$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 24c | 200.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 76c | 131.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 127.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 24c | 85.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 25c | 79.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 75c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…4440backed Over | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 26c | 44.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 76c | 25.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 76c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…ebcbbacked Over | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.