Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d98c657acdcee0de5a2652286d52a2af2262e3113796a4fe7bda12a1de0d7a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof AS Roma, ACF Fiorentina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf83…248bbacked AS Roma | 38c | 3,504$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed ACF Fiorentina | 62c | 1,521$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.2 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 1,150$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 63c | 1,140$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.18 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked ACF Fiorentina | 62c | 818.65$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.09 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed AS Roma | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed ACF Fiorentina | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 440.03$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.41 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed AS Roma | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked AS Roma | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…18acbacked AS Roma | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed AS Roma | 37c | 256.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.76 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 42c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 161.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed AS Roma | 38c | 145.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed AS Roma | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed AS Roma | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 129.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 119.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd963…fd5abacked AS Roma | 37c | 118.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed AS Roma | 35c | 110.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…642bbacked AS Roma | 37c | 102.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked AS Roma | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed AS Roma | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…ec38backed AS Roma | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed AS Roma | 76c | 97.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…d11dbacked AS Roma | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 85.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed AS Roma | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…199bbacked AS Roma | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 79.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed AS Roma | 35c | 69.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed ACF Fiorentina | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed ACF Fiorentina | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked AS Roma | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…78e2backed AS Roma | 36c | 37.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 36.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed ACF Fiorentina | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked ACF Fiorentina | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.