Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x681411bb0a8b1d9fd800da3a728f92b5bc8de092079f68ff65326e9d3aded34d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 13c | 5,419$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.57 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 4,057$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.54 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 3,367$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.27 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Over | 67c | 2,500$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 68c | 2,206$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 47c | 1,839$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 61c | 1,687$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 1,661$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Under | 42c | 1,193$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +62%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 1,106$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.13 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…2ab7backed Over | 30c | 899.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 827.46$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.81 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Over | 46c | 571.74$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 522.56$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.78 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 57c | 515.34$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.66 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 63c | 476.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.27 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 68c | 444.12$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 54c | 407.41$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 43c | 345.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 44c | 266.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 45c | 223.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 59c | 204.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…d111backed Under | 77c | 170.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 61c | 162.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 64c | 156.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 13c | 138.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…4f61backed Under | 55c | 128$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 121.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 53c | 116.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 72c | 111.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 39c | 92.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 42c | 84.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 62c | 74.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 45c | 64.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 64c | 62.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 35c | 62.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 51c | 59.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 45c | 59.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 44c | 57.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…41c1backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 45c | 49.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 46c | 48.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Under | 56c | 44.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 79c | 43.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…e3afbacked Over | 47c | 42.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Under | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 44c | 40.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 46c | 36.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 36c | 32.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…1ed4backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Under | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 42c | 25.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 54c | 20.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.