Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af9893fb6b3c2f58c238acc14bb2a4294d06c77c91490bb3598785023fb95d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 4,686$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.15 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Over | 77c | 3,250$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 78c | 2,184$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,982$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Under | 28c | 1,452$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +62%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Under | 27c | 1,300$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…6ca6backed Over | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 28c | 281$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.32 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 26c | 279.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 29c | 228.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +206%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 74c | 199.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 27c | 194.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 188.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 6c | 182.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…c7f3backed Under | 27c | 156.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…804fbacked Over | 31c | 146.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 29c | 124.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 77c | 96.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 28c | 95.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 91.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 29c | 86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +9.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 28c | 76.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 70c | 69.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 77c | 65.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 23c | 59.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 57.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 71c | 50.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 27c | 49.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 27c | 44.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 71c | 44.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Under | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…333fbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 72c | 27.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 73c | 27.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Under | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…73d0backed Over | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.