TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Targu Mures: Alice Rame vs Julie Struplova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alice Rameof Alice Rame, Julie Struplova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf00…1199backed Alice Rame76c27,006$20,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,405.646456.3%36 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Julie Struplova38c19,110$7,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,328.048,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef53…4591backed Julie Struplova25c15,752$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,928.9717543.4%76 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Julie Struplova16c5,750$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92071729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Julie Struplova73c5,056$3,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,690.66070%42 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Alice Rame27c5,049$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.861,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Julie Struplova55c4,240$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.86,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4773…2289backed Julie Struplova64c3,936$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.823063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alice Rame61c2,613$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.838,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Alice Rame41c2,459$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.034,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Alice Rame64c2,456$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.523,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alice Rame53c2,028$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.574,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Alice Rame58c1,592$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.7233037.3%123 W · 207 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Julie Struplova69c1,267$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.2527148%130 W · 141 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5965…935fbacked Julie Struplova18c799.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14417323.7%41 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed Julie Struplova53c749.06$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39718947.6%90 W · 99 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Julie Struplova37c708.58$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.4593740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…56ffbacked Julie Struplova50c682.44$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2211832.2%38 W · 80 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Alice Rame68c648.89$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.674,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Julie Struplova50c637.63$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8226541.9%111 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Julie Struplova49c635.71$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6323738.8%92 W · 145 L+0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Alice Rame53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28220452.5%107 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Alice Rame29c600$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.627,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Julie Struplova32c595.09$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.522335.4%79 W · 144 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Julie Struplova45c592.6$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.672,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Julie Struplova53c555$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.152147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Julie Struplova71c530.46$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.683,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Alice Rame29c492$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.328234.1%28 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Julie Struplova52c483.25$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.294,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Julie Struplova54c453.79$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.012,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d3…a939backed Julie Struplova45c446$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.73540%14 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Alice Rame53c440$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.464065.9%422 W · 218 L+2.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc024…cc2ebacked Julie Struplova72c418.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008165.4%53 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd026…a303backed Julie Struplova72c416.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alice Rame50c391.07$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.751,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Julie Struplova62c349.32$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162d…8944backed Julie Struplova6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013134.4%45 W · 86 L+13.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Alice Rame64c315.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.72,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…7f0cbacked Julie Struplova48c313.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010152.5%53 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Julie Struplova53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1592123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Alice Rame43c299.13$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.911,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Julie Struplova54c283.3$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1776355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcddb…befabacked Julie Struplova72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001060%6 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd169…8ff6backed Julie Struplova38c275$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7528437.3%106 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Alice Rame51c255.26$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.071,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Alice Rame71c251.46$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.22,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe01b…fa88backed Julie Struplova4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109349.5%46 W · 47 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x116c…0685backed Julie Struplova71c233.03$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4514757.1%84 W · 63 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fd0…246abacked Julie Struplova48c229.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Alice Rame58c229.3$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.771,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Alice Rame68c221.33$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.622,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Alice Rame49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0828154.8%154 W · 127 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Alice Rame49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0821842.2%92 W · 126 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Alice Rame59c180.95$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.62,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Julie Struplova46c172.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…db33backed Julie Struplova73c170.41$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12418968.8%130 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Julie Struplova43c165.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7158931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8b…13e6backed Julie Struplova64c163.88$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511462.3%71 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Alice Rame26c153.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8518731%58 W · 129 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alice Rame59c151.12$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.964,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Alice Rame60c143.47$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.770537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Alice Rame28c140.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.395,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Alice Rame29c139.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3986835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Julie Struplova31c138.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f7…4c3abacked Alice Rame73c136.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7314775.5%111 W · 36 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c4d…a427backed Julie Struplova57c136.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7312748.8%62 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Julie Struplova55c135.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.865,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Alice Rame28c115.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.372,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Julie Struplova71c112.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8039254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b6…0a41backed Julie Struplova15c105.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168552.9%45 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Alice Rame54c104$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.241,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked Julie Struplova62c101.89$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6330647.7%146 W · 160 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Julie Struplova49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.527437.2%102 W · 172 L-21.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Alice Rame54c97.14$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1454955.2%303 W · 246 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Julie Struplova19c96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Julie Struplova57c92.47$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7150268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Julie Struplova58c89.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.561,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Alice Rame63c87.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3423530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Julie Struplova71c82.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.489859.7%536 W · 362 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Alice Rame53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.633134.7%115 W · 216 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Alice Rame47c79.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5910063%63 W · 37 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Julie Struplova40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3078857.1%450 W · 338 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Julie Struplova45c72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Alice Rame60c71.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Julie Struplova43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.120039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Julie Struplova72c69.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Alice Rame29c69.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2830644.1%135 W · 171 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0882…dceabacked Alice Rame59c67.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.884143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Alice Rame69c66.71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4633165%215 W · 116 L+22.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd934…ab75backed Alice Rame51c65.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.885651.8%29 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f0…8b09backed Alice Rame77c64.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa63…f061backed Alice Rame45c64.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.357538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed1…18a8backed Alice Rame68c64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5613256.1%74 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Julie Struplova48c63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.481,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c98…e37cbacked Julie Struplova52c62.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.49560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Alice Rame28c60.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6255941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab2…9decbacked Julie Struplova55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8529151.9%151 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Julie Struplova59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3633062.7%207 W · 123 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4336…492abacked Julie Struplova74c59.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Alice Rame58c58.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.012,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.