Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd26fa3e7b77115a4ad375e1b5d552d41bda2f8ad49cb05f8b1e76ca8a015b439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 50c | 1,621$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.9 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 24c | 365$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 291.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 276.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 240$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 45c | 178.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 176.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 49c | 176$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…7ff0backed No | 67c | 174.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 32c | 165$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 45c | 160.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 126.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 50c | 119.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 115.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 112.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 109.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 92.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 77.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 49c | 69.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 61.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 50.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 46.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 43.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…fd52backed No | 69c | 43.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 40.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 40.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 35.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 73c | 35.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed Yes | 32c | 34.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 34.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 24.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 56c | 23.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 77c | 15.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.