South American Leagues · resolved market
Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd364de183cde5b018efb93f9ed0f021d935140ba420a4dd16f07210671f34cc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 79c | 10,014$7,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,898.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 2,121$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 1,180$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.08 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 58c | 1,030$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.6 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 28c | 932.34$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.3 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 36c | 916.84$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.78 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 22c | 739.71$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.91 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 480.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.99 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 21c | 476$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.04 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 419.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.17 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 284.78$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 21c | 263.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 258.06$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.62 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 241.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 21c | 219.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.41 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 21c | 204.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 57c | 192.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 168.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 27c | 141.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…fab1backed Under | 72c | 137.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 134.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 132.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 66c | 102.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 68c | 99.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 35c | 90.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 69.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…a5efbacked Over | 23c | 65.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +177.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed Under | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 60.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 34c | 40.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…1532backed Over | 58c | 40.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 59c | 38.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 80c | 31.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a4aabacked Over | 62c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 77c | 31.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…f29cbacked Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5this page
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)FC Juárez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.