Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd401a01e8c7c532f108857e87bc5f3fc89b3d817df8a672bcbca6714e9eb6423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 533$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 503.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 455.61$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 4c | 435$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 32c | 312.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 270.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 12c | 240.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 194.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 176.6$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 24c | 165.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 153.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 28c | 141.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 36c | 138.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 134.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 9c | 129.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 129.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…e715backed No | 79c | 126.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 116.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 19c | 107.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 104.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 100.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 85.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 83.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 81.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 24c | 77.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 77c | 75.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 69.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 79c | 68.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 23c | 59.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 76c | 56.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 56.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 52.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 19c | 52.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 52.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 41c | 49.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 37.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 35.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 32.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 49c | 30.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 29.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 28.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 23.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 78c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 65c | 17.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.