Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9db207fbcb68508d3f3849b6da14673a93ed0ee4e2f08ec6d7d6d4963a093e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 0c | 10,069$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 291.16$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 22c | 243.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 24c | 233.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 19c | 201.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 124.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 123.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 106.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 106.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 105.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 102.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 31c | 99.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 21c | 99.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 98.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 97.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 27c | 95.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 90.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 74.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 70c | 73.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 72.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 72.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 68.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 19c | 67.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 26c | 65.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 64.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 61.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 73c | 61.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 75c | 58.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 56.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 54.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 50.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 49.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 49.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 45.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 42.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 40.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 33.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 33.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 30.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 27.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 74c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…0811backed No | 67c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…2ac7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 80c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 70c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 79c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 79c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.