Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a6b5b663e6d2c9466d88f71c6c692336ce0c55cca82068ac30df17d4670db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 654.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 73c | 515.85$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 509.84$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 28c | 346.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 43c | 312.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 53c | 227.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 222.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.86 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 49c | 199.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 34c | 181.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 154.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 140.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 135.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 129.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 125.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 124.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 44c | 112.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 111.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 104.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 101.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 101.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 42c | 99.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 99.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 91.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 55c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 73.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 64.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 55c | 63.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 55c | 63.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 59.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 47c | 59.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 53.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…f982backed Yes | 43c | 53.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 51c | 50.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 40c | 49.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 48c | 47.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 77c | 47.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 45.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…ee56backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 41.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 53c | 40.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…aba9backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 39.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 78c | 38.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 52c | 32.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 54c | 32.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 32.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 34c | 30.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 27.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 26.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 39c | 25.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 47c | 24.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 49c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 49c | 22.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 20.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 57c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.