UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40337c2cc73e9bed0875e96131b44b8f7c050e91760087b03ade66e11f7bf4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 40c | 9,473$3,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,823.23 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 60c | 4,149$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.78 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 58c | 3,474$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.59 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 65c | 3,332$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.32 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 29c | 3,100$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 65c | 2,280$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.14 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked No | 39c | 2,190$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Yes | 65c | 801.94$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 72c | 743.36$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 35c | 494.76$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.17 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 61c | 419.25$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Yes | 71c | 306.24$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Yes | 57c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed No | 50c | 234.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 32c | 182.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ae3ebacked Yes | 55c | 181.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 60c | 165.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 68c | 162$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Yes | 58c | 161.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked Yes | 61c | 157.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 29c | 139.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…ff33backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 33c | 94.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…ac2dbacked Yes | 71c | 74.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…63afbacked Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 42c | 25.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Yes | 65c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)Mario Bautista won
- Will Cory Sandhagen win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mario Bautista win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.