Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4051fbd9ed17aacc68bdeb3a130529a458907cf9c2cf7bfa197bf1972d63f45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 532.04$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 502.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.34 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 275.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 217.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 67c | 169.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 168.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 161.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 25c | 161.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 144.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 133.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 125.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 123.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 119.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 32c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 108.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 104.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 100.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 27c | 84.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 75.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 63.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 67c | 59.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 65c | 59.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 57.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 64c | 51.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 35c | 50.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 49c | 45.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 42.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 40.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 34.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 38c | 30.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 65c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 18.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 68c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.