Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63de4472e1c5b4b4b6c97b28ae7bf581452a59eeefc812ed2f8d21d49b7d01e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3438…67cdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,991$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 391.92$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 78c | 319.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 63c | 213.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 210.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 185.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 175.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 174$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 166.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 133.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 69c | 128.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 125.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 121.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 113.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 65c | 109.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 99.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 53c | 68.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 62.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 41c | 56.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 37c | 55.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 32c | 50.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 50.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 27c | 49.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 44c | 45.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 37c | 40.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 36.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 35.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 34.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 45c | 28.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 26.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 49c | 23.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 58c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.