WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd41e26d3b6af95215871bb6b92f76cad3419bb6436745f0c6ec7e7857f863d59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Libertyof Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty | 50c | 2,465$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.38 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 925.17$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 814.3$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.72 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Liberty | 50c | 687.8$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.71 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 668.8$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 36c | 548.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.32 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Liberty | 59c | 233.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 26c | 173$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 170.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 32c | 103.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Las Vegas Aces | 30c | 96.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 94.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked New York Liberty | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed New York Liberty | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed New York Liberty | 61c | 84.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…1e9fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 27c | 74.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked New York Liberty | 60c | 73.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +8.2wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty | 51c | 54.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed New York Liberty | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Las Vegas Aces | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked New York Liberty | 62c | 40.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed New York Liberty | 46c | 32.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed New York Liberty | 46c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked New York Liberty | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed New York Liberty | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed New York Liberty | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5)this page
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas AcesNew York Liberty won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5Under won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5Under won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Under won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Under won
- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5)New York Liberty won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.