TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Crystal Palace FCof Arsenal FC, Crystal Palace FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,067 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb911…7c31backed Arsenal FC11c2,487$274 inLost-$273.552020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Arsenal FC19c618$117 inLost-$116.8815030.7%46 W · 104 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arsenal FC12c322.91$39 inLost-$38.7557833%191 W · 387 L-29.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Arsenal FC10c246.65$25 inLost-$24.759445.5%270 W · 324 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…a2dfbacked Arsenal FC28c207.22$58 inLost-$58.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Arsenal FC11c147.15$16 inLost-$16.191,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Crystal Palace FC63c52.38$33 inWon+$19.381764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Crystal Palace FC63c47.62$30 inWon+$17.621050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.