Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f39c5c9e73da83c483fbe467b935aab801fe2203aef20dddc123598ad952940

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Crystal Palace FCof Arsenal FC, Crystal Palace FC
Resolved: May 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,066 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbca1…dd13backed Crystal Palace FC	76c	6,026$4,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,446.15	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Arsenal FC	24c	5,231$1,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255.54	1,012	33.2%336 W · 676 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Arsenal FC	26c	4,038$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038.35	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd760…f7f5backed Arsenal FC	28c	3,532$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$989.08	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Arsenal FC	29c	3,000$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.97	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arsenal FC	68c	2,712$1,843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,842.92	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Crystal Palace FC	71c	1,984$1,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.36	107	65.4%70 W · 37 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Crystal Palace FC	37c	1,953$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,239.32	886	35.8%317 W · 569 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	1,790$1,332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458	592	47.6%282 W · 310 L	+18.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb911…7c31backed Arsenal FC	25c	1,730$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.5	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Crystal Palace FC	74c	1,246$921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.1	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+3.9wins	+0.35per pick	56cpaid	+71.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Arsenal FC	27c	1,129$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Arsenal FC	25c	1,063$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.06	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Crystal Palace FC	74c	798.06$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.37	418	50.7%212 W · 206 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Crystal Palace FC	57c	727.67$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.5	150	30.7%46 W · 104 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Crystal Palace FC	73c	616.63$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.49	557	51.5%287 W · 270 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Arsenal FC	78c	584.48$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.15	721	42.7%308 W · 413 L	+15.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Crystal Palace FC	72c	549.77$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.77	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	536.64$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.43	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d36…9155backed Arsenal FC	27c	466.15$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.9	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Crystal Palace FC	73c	410.96$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.96	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	353.42$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.89	173	39.9%69 W · 104 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Arsenal FC	27c	279$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.33	171	53.8%92 W · 79 L	+10.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Crystal Palace FC	64c	262.2$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.36	133	53.4%71 W · 62 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Crystal Palace FC	74c	254.21$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.32	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc774…a2dfbacked Arsenal FC	38c	210.21$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Crystal Palace FC	29c	200.26$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.84	226	45.6%103 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Arsenal FC	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Crystal Palace FC	33c	179.48$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.87	365	45.2%165 W · 200 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Arsenal FC	41c	170$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.7	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Arsenal FC	30c	166.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	114	37.7%43 W · 71 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Arsenal FC	30c	166.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Arsenal FC	27c	165.44$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.01	105	34.3%36 W · 69 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Arsenal FC	30c	155$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Crystal Palace FC	72c	146$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.48	1,074	45%483 W · 591 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Crystal Palace FC	65c	143.83$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.41	428	62.4%267 W · 161 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Crystal Palace FC	63c	140.85$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.85	63	38.1%24 W · 39 L	-5.8wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	136.68$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.08	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Crystal Palace FC	75c	131.74$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.48	144	63.2%91 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Arsenal FC	29c	108.02$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.33	264	44.7%118 W · 146 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Crystal Palace FC	37c	106.73$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.42	578	33%191 W · 387 L	-29.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd424…bf7bbacked Arsenal FC	29c	103.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Arsenal FC	29c	101.3$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.93	212	50.9%108 W · 104 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Crystal Palace FC	71c	98.03$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.43	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…835dbacked Arsenal FC	42c	92.36$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7d…2cabbacked Arsenal FC	30c	88.53$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f3…c682backed Arsenal FC	27c	88.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd79c…a0e7backed Arsenal FC	30c	83.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Crystal Palace FC	72c	80.65$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.43	406	55.2%224 W · 182 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Arsenal FC	28c	73.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Crystal Palace FC	75c	62.67$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.67	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9402…e673backed Arsenal FC	76c	60$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	58$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.08	1,615	53%856 W · 759 L	+33.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Crystal Palace FC	58c	56.99$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9e3…93f2backed Arsenal FC	43c	56.51$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Crystal Palace FC	71c	56.34$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	17	94.1%16 W · 1 L	+3.7wins	+0.22per pick	73cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	47.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Crystal Palace FC	71c	43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Crystal Palace FC	76c	40.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc421…724cbacked Crystal Palace FC	76c	39.47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Crystal Palace FC	72c	34.79$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.83	150	46%69 W · 81 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Crystal Palace FC	69c	32.25$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.95	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Crystal Palace FC	68c	30.57$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	1,220	49.8%607 W · 613 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Crystal Palace FC	71c	29.79$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.64	40	65%26 W · 14 L	+3.6wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc21…f297backed Crystal Palace FC	71c	28.31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	75cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Arsenal FC	38c	27.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-5.4wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc435…1923backed Crystal Palace FC	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Crystal Palace FC	74c	25.49$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.55	1,662	34.9%580 W · 1,082 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Crystal Palace FC	73c	24.42$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.55	758	50%379 W · 379 L	+20.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Arsenal FC	49c	23.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-8.1wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Crystal Palace FC	71c	23.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.79	543	40.5%220 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Crystal Palace FC	75c	23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.75	102	57.8%59 W · 43 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Crystal Palace FC	76c	22.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.46	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Crystal Palace FC	69c	20.3$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.32	395	55.9%221 W · 174 L	+17.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Crystal Palace FC	70c	19.7$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.01	288	59.7%172 W · 116 L	+19.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Crystal Palace FC	72c	15.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.27	112	50.9%57 W · 55 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Crystal Palace FC	73c	14.53$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.95	202	59.9%121 W · 81 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)this page
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event