Premier League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc477929fedca3c715653e910f19eb600d23da4a23d9ceeeae7cdf08f058d06c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked Under | 24c | 15,632$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 3,646$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.32 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 76c | 2,528$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.83 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 76c | 2,062$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.93 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 76c | 1,326$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.13 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…708cbacked Over | 73c | 910.66$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 76c | 884$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 76c | 800$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Over | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 23c | 556.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Under | 25c | 546.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 77c | 478.48$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 144 | 63.2%91 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 76c | 440.51$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 76c | 345.39$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 192.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 64c | 151.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 76c | 150.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 79c | 146$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 79c | 122.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…afc3backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…4d8cbacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 49.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 76c | 44.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 78c | 43.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 39c | 30.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 77c | 26.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 184 | 63%116 W · 68 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 55c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 79c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…f1d7backed Over | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 77c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Over | 77c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 77c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.