NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44782a9b5a267b0edef1637aa763bc902edaf732c028c8fca9a64afe1e136b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 22c | 2,015$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.31 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 78c | 2,000$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.4 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 1,506$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.32 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 41c | 975.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…9d91backed Under | 36c | 809.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 78c | 797.73$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.63 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Under | 22c | 311$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 74c | 226.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 25c | 217.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Over | 76c | 210.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 77c | 182.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…6a47backed Over | 76c | 171.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 36c | 116$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…08f9backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 25c | 86.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Over | 75c | 39.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 65c | 38.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Under | 35c | 33.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…9bb3backed Over | 76c | 33.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…9524backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Over | 75c | 31.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4b…fd62backed Over | 76c | 28.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Over | 76c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 25.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Over | 75c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…f82cbacked Over | 77c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…4861backed Over | 76c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 67c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…83c0backed Over | 76c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Over | 76c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Over | 76c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d83…3ceabacked Over | 76c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Over | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…b7dcbacked Over | 76c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…0f04backed Over | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Over | 76c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…28cdbacked Over | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…d21cbacked Over | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…00c4backed Over | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…50c4backed Over | 76c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…a206backed Over | 76c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Over | 76c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…c2f4backed Over | 76c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…ab5dbacked Over | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…221cbacked Over | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…cd2fbacked Over | 76c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 66c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe96a…f53bbacked Over | 76c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40aa…b99bbacked Over | 76c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…f13abacked Over | 76c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…7310backed Over | 76c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 75c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…1ea2backed Over | 76c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…8918backed Over | 76c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Over | 76c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Over | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Over | 76c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Over | 76c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…c97ebacked Over | 75c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…17c4backed Over | 75c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed Over | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1a36backed Over | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Over | 76c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Over | 77c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Wild vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.