NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b1edfc86631d33bb13ab657926229ff7e502d687668bd3cacc45ac3645ff31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3c9…4b9cbacked Over | 56c | 34,226$19,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,060.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 44c | 19,470$8,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,566.8 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Under | 44c | 3,065$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.85 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 2,090$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.69 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,954$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.64 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 44c | 1,820$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.8 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 47c | 1,777$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.64 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 55c | 1,637$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.64 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 57c | 1,305$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 43c | 1,111$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.73 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,054$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.62 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 44c | 916.38$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.21 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 854.5$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.75 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 648.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.56 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 52c | 636.16$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Under | 47c | 612.72$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.01 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 48c | 580.11$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.7 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 49c | 510.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…325bbacked Under | 52c | 490.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 44c | 475.93$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 55c | 432$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…97bebacked Under | 44c | 431.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 55c | 420$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 44c | 305.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 53c | 302$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 56c | 277.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…76b4backed Over | 55c | 270.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Under | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 225$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 46c | 193$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 175.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 55c | 154.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Under | 45c | 152.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5321…1053backed Over | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 149.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 116.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 116$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 111.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 43c | 103.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 43c | 99.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 35c | 92.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 88.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 81.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 57c | 80.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…a5bbbacked Under | 60c | 66.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 42c | 65.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 43c | 60.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…03fcbacked Under | 44c | 56.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd328…8b13backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 44c | 47.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 44.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 45c | 37.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 58c | 35.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…599ebacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…885cbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 44c | 25.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…c9a5backed Under | 44c | 23.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…d13bbacked Over | 57c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 50c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Wild vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.