MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd453a9d4caaa4db7ed57d33fa4bac043e77aa9f498bb3aa9f45b3dd17acf2282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 36c | 6,080$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 4,314$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed New York Mets | 45c | 4,300$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.13 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 32c | 3,898$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…f324backed New York Mets | 41c | 2,443$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 36c | 2,076$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 1,708$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.31 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,597$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked New York Mets | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 1,178$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.72 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed New York Mets | 28c | 887.09$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.78 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 694.85$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.85 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 35c | 512$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 33c | 374.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 361.29$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 12c | 320.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed New York Mets | 40c | 316.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 32c | 272.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 25c | 265.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked New York Mets | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed New York Mets | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 205$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed New York Mets | 41c | 200.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked New York Mets | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked New York Mets | 39c | 166.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Mets | 40c | 154.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 16c | 124.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Mets | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Mets | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Mets | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 14c | 79.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 73.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 50.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed New York Mets | 36c | 46.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed New York Mets | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked New York Mets | 34c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 39c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 32c | 32.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…829abacked New York Mets | 46c | 30.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b43…d103backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.