Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a4ad91c63bcba4999dc0245147c71790c90675267600b7307bccf85e6b0091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,168$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 898.72$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 269.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 235.74$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 27c | 185.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 9c | 181.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 153.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 148.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 27c | 148$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 138.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 113.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 105.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 100.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 92.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 29c | 74.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 26c | 72.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 59.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 28c | 56.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 55.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 55.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 20c | 53.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 19c | 51.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 44.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 27c | 39.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 37.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 33.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…cbcabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.