Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d80b133b6938cf358ee53d632eefc0087a9879b43515402a373c03971c0a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 48c | 1,129$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.39 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 691.68$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 636$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 404$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 38c | 297.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 287.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 242.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 51c | 226.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 53c | 209.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 37c | 200.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 155.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 155.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 152.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 148.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 145.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 45c | 137.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 122.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 54c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 114.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 113.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 39c | 100.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 67c | 99.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 51c | 97.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 90.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 88.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 86.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 84.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 34c | 84.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 74c | 81.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 77.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 55c | 76.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 70c | 71.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 60c | 64.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 66c | 62.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 61.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…1db9backed Yes | 71c | 60.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 44.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 37.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 70c | 36.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…69f8backed Yes | 49c | 36.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 33.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 30.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…cbcabacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 29.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…ea72backed Yes | 40c | 27.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed No | 57c | 24.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…dfeabacked Yes | 62c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 24.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 22.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 16.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.