MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a98b1253e95d00639399f044881134d6246447540424c3d70446d77154d733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 53c | 943.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.38 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 522.22$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.22 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 47c | 377.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 1,924 | 53.4%1,028 W · 896 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 46c | 359.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 275$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 789 | 50.1%395 W · 394 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 672 | 48.5%326 W · 346 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 180.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 180.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 171.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 171$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 162.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 54c | 135.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 45c | 110.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 487 | 43.3%211 W · 276 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,849 | 50.7%937 W · 912 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 74c | 95.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 94.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 53c | 90.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 34c | 69.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 65.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,593 | 48.6%774 W · 819 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 230 | 48.3%111 W · 119 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 33c | 56.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed Under | 54c | 46.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -72%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 47.9%149 W · 162 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 65c | 41.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 36.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.