MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2c342823870c95c8c522895e5720446d424da2134bca2e809890ce1926185e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 341.81$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 234.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 212.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 208.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 187.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 148.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 131.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 115.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 93.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 90.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 70.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 58.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 50.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 49.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 49.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 48.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 47.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…e36bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 31.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 27.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 27.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.