NBA · resolved market
NBA Summer League: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b799e974cae39e47517c8d9162831428c0b30c8433c84d3274125a2fcfd77f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Denver Nuggetsof Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 0c | 3,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 48c | 2,013$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 1c | 1,889$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Denver Nuggets | 57c | 1,058$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.33 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 32c | 999.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.02 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Denver Nuggets | 51c | 915.73$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.96 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Denver Nuggets | 64c | 751.33$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.9 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 29c | 703.19$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Denver Nuggets | 70c | 567$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.86 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc50…f8debacked Denver Nuggets | 65c | 549.45$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Denver Nuggets | 39c | 502.51$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.21 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 43c | 470$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 111 | 60.4%67 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 62c | 446.7$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.49 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 67c | 430.5$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Denver Nuggets | 45c | 368.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.92 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Denver Nuggets | 54c | 349.71$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 54c | 312.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.83 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 35c | 299.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Denver Nuggets | 56c | 289.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Denver Nuggets | 35c | 282.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…143bbacked Denver Nuggets | 74c | 270.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 56c | 259.38$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Denver Nuggets | 37c | 255.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.41 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 40c | 250.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 38c | 247.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…5369backed Denver Nuggets | 53c | 236.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…cf4bbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 63c | 234.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf990…88bcbacked Denver Nuggets | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Denver Nuggets | 33c | 181$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Denver Nuggets | 61c | 180.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Denver Nuggets | 68c | 154.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Denver Nuggets | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 53c | 149$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Denver Nuggets | 36c | 144.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 51c | 136.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 45c | 132.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…b6f3backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 29c | 131.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Denver Nuggets | 46c | 104.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…75e7backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 45c | 77.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Denver Nuggets | 47c | 72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Denver Nuggets | 53c | 70.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Denver Nuggets | 53c | 52.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Denver Nuggets | 35c | 52.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 65c | 47.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -7.5wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 51c | 40.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Denver Nuggets | 38c | 38.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…cd08backed Denver Nuggets | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Denver Nuggets | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 65c | 30.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 54c | 29.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 65c | 29.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 61c | 28.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Timberwolves | 54c | 22.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Minnesota Timberwolves | 66c | 16.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.